2024 polls: Trump’s lead over Haley in New Hampshire shrinks to within four points

Former President Donald Trump gets more than 60 per cent in FiveThirtyEight’s national GOP primary polling average as of 29 December. In January of 2023, Mr Trump was standing at about 42 per cent support.

Polling average as of 29 December:

• Donald Trump: 61.2%

• Nikki Haley: 11.0%

• Ron DeSantis: 11.7%

• Vivek Ramaswamy: 3.5%

• Chris Christie: 3.4%

• Asa Hutchinson: 0.6%

The former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has tightened the gap between her and the prominent frontrunner in New Hampshire, according to a 21 December poll from American Research Group.

The poll indicated that 33 per cent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters support the former president while 29 per cent support Ms Haley, meaning she has closed in on him within four percentage points.

In response to the recent poll, Mr Trump took to Truth Social, blasting it as a “scam.”

He wrote, “FAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL WAS RELEASED ON BIRDBRAIN. JUST ANOTHER SCAM! RATINGS CHALLENGED FOXNEWS WILL PLAY IT TO THE HILT. SUNUNU NOW ONE OF THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNORS IN U.S. REAL POLL TO FOLLOW.”

The poll also indicated that Chris Christie has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis in the state, boasting 13 per cent compared to the Florida Republican’s mere 6 per cent.

Joe Biden’s management of the US’s role in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is deeply unpopular thanks in part to a serious divide among Americans generationally regarding the war.

A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College finds Mr Biden trailing his expected 2020 challenger, Donald Trump, when Americans are asked which politician they’d trust more to lead the US through the crisis. It’s a finding that underscores how badly the incumbent president’s numbers are with voters in his own party as he heads into an election year facing calls not just from Republicans but from Democrats as well to step aside and let a younger candidate run.

Mr Biden’s support from young voters is cratering. Nearly three out of four voters ages 18-29 say they disapprove of Mr Biden’s handling of the conflict — a dismal sign for an incumbent who is consumed with the task of shoring up a coalition that in 2020 included a major surge in the youth vote. Younger voters turned out in 2020 and largely voted against Donald Trump; an analysis from Tufts University found that the percentage of young voters who participated in 2020 jumped 11 points from the previous election cycle.

The reason for the disillusionment of Mr Biden’s younger supporters on this issue is clear: Millennials and Gen Z are more broadly opposed to the Israeli government’s handling of the conflict, which has claimed more than 19,000 lives and has yet to result in the death of any prominent members of Hamas leadership.

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US President Joe Biden’s approval rating hit an all-time low on Monday, with just 34 per cent of respondents to a new poll saying they approve of the job he is doing in the White House.

By contrast, 61 per cent said they were dissatisfied with his performance when consulted for the latest survey from Monmouth University, conducted between 30 November and 4 December.

The remaining five per cent of people surveyed said they had not yet made up their minds about the president’s first term.

The Biden administration’s approach to tackling illegal immigration (69 per cent disapproval) and taming inflation (68 per cent disapproval) were identified as areas of particular concern, according to Monmouth.

Meanwhile, 53 per cent were disappointed with the president’s record on job creation and 52 per cent by his administration’s work on bolstering transport and energy infrastructure.

“The Biden administration keeps touting their infrastructure investments and a host of positive economic indicators,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Those data points may be factual, but most Americans are still smarting from higher prices caused by post-pandemic inflation. This seems to be what’s driving public opinion. There is political danger in pushing a message that basically tells people their take on their own situation is wrong.”

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Twenty per cent said the economy, including jobs and the stock market, was the most important problem facing the country, with 14 per cent saying inflation and the cost of living. Less than one per cent said abortion and less than half a per cent said election integrity, one of Mr Trump’s main hangups as he continues to make the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Ten per cent listed immigration as their top issue, with three per cent saying healthcare, and two per cent each saying crime and gun policies.

Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they approve of how Mr Biden is handling the job, with 58 per cent saying they disapprove. In July, 39 per cent approved of his job performance and 54 per cent disapproved.

Forty-three per cent said they had a favourable view of Mr Trump, while 55 per cent had an unfavourable view. For Mr Biden, those figures were 39 and 57 per cent respectively.

Asked about the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, 38 per cent said they thought Mr Biden would do a better job, with 46 per cent backing Mr Trump on the issue.

If responding prospective voters weren’t forced to choose between Mr Trump and Mr Biden but were given the option of backing “another candidate” or saying they wouldn’t vote if they were the candidates, 39 per cent said they would back Mr Biden, 41 per cent said they would support Mr Trump and seven per cent said they would vote for another candidate. Five per cent said they wouldn’t vote and seven per cent either didn’t know or declined to answer.

In July, Mr Trump and Mr Biden were tied on 43 per cent each.

Among those not supporting either candidate, when asked, “If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward” Mr Biden or Mr Trump, 26 per cent said the Democrat, 24 per cent said the Republican and 50 per cent said they were unsure or refused to answer.

Among those taking part in the survey, 30 per cent said high school was their highest level of education, with 23 per cent reporting having a bachelor’s degree and 14 per cent having a graduate or professional degree.

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by two points in the latest national polling of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.

The former president leads his successor by 46 to 44 per cent, with nine per cent either saying they don’t know who they would back or declining to answer the question.

According to the poll, which was conducted between 10 and 14 December, 92 per cent of respondents said they were at least somewhat likely to vote, with 29 per cent saying they were very likely to vote, and 53 per cent saying they were almost certain that they would show up at the ballot box.

In 2020, 66.8 per cent voted – the highest turnout of the 21st century.

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Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is emerging as a strong Republican alternative to Donald Trump, with new polling from New Hampshire showing Ms Haley getting a boost of support from potential voters.

In a CBS News/YouGov poll of potential Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 29 per cent said they’d vote for Ms Haley compared to 44 per cent who said they would for Mr Trump.

The numbers reflect potential voters’ changing opinion of Ms Haley, who in November had 18 per cent in an Emerson College/WHDH poll of New Hampshire voters compared to Mr Trump, who had 49 per cent.

The new results from CBS News and YouGov come nearly a week after New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu endorsed Ms Haley for 2024 president.

It indicates that while the former president remains the frontrunner of the party, Ms Haley is catching up to him heading into primary season.

Potential Republican primary voters said they view Ms Haley as more likable, a better role model and more reasonable than Mr Trump who is facing a myriad of criminal trials in the coming year.

Despite this, most voters are still supporting the former president in the Granite State – though Mr Sununu says that may not last long.

“There’s so many folks undecided,” the New Hampshire governor told ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “A lot of decisions won’t be made really until the last couple of weeks,” Mr Sununu said.

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The 2024 election will officially be underway in just a few weeks, as Iowa voters head to caucus on 15 January. But the shadow 2028 presidential campaign, at least among Democrats, appears to be taking shape as well.

Speculation about the next presidential election cycle kicked into second gear last month when California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who has repeatedly insisted that his name will not be in the running for the 2024 election, appeared onstage for a rare moderated debate with Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor remains a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination, but continues to significantly trail frontrunner Donald Trump in both national and state-level polling.

Mr Newsom’s debate-stage sparring with Mr DeSantis led many to believe that he holds his own national ambitions. Further evidence for that argument can be found in the form of his recent official travel abroad to meet with the leaders of Israel and China.

But the California Democrat is hardly the only one taking very public steps towards securing a national profile among their party. On Tuesday, Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer released a slate of congressional endorsements through her Fight Like Hell PAC for roughly two dozen centre-left House members; the majority were in key presidential battleground states. Just one was from her own home state.

The list includes Hillary Scholten of Michigan, Susan Wild and Chris DeLuzio of Pennsylvania, Jahanna Hayes of Connecticut, Emilia Sykes of Ohio, Steven Horsford of Nevada, Angie Craig of Minnesota and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.

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Foreign leaders have repeatedly implored Joe Biden not to let Donald Trump win next year’s US election, the president has claimed.

At a fundraising event in Philadelphia on Monday, the 81-year-old said he had faced private entreaties to beat Mr Trump at every single global summit he had attended, according to the Associated Press.

“There’s not an international event that I’ve attended – not one – where the rest of the world doesn’t come up to me – leaders, no matter what country they’re from – and say, ‘You can’t let him win. You can’t let him win,” Mr Biden reportedly told the audience.

The remarks came as multiple polls showed Mr Trump dominating rivals for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination next year, with support from as many as six in ten GOP voters.

On Tuesday another poll showed Mr Trump with 51 per cent of likely voters in the upcoming Iowa caucus, which will kick off the 2024 presidential campaign in earnest next month.

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